4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
IND Away

Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
Sunday 2017-10-29 · 13:00 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread 11.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

IND
27.9%
CIN
72.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: -0.146 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • CIN offense: -0.107 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • CIN defense: -0.106 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Jacoby Brissett (IND): -0.133 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • IND defense: +0.106 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

IND 17
–
CIN 25
Projected margin: CIN by 8 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

IND

Andrew Luck QB Out right Shoulder
Rashaan Melvin CB Out Concussion
John Simon LB Out Neck
Kamar Aiken WR Questionable Shoulder
Darius Butler S Questionable Ankle
T.J. Green S Questionable Hamstring
Ryan Kelly C Questionable Knee

CIN

Tyler Boyd WR Out Knee
Cody Core WR Out Concussion
Ryan Hewitt TE Out Knee
Kevin Minter LB Out Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 23
–
CIN 24

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:45 FG CIN (5:45) 4-R.Bullock 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. IND 0 – CIN 3
  • Q2 12:05 FG IND (12:05) 4-A.Vinatieri 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. IND 3 – CIN 3
  • Q2 08:19 TD IND (8:19) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 84-J.Doyle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 9 – CIN 3
  • Q2 04:41 TD CIN (4:41) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 18-A.Green for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 10 – CIN 9
  • Q2 00:03 FG IND (:03) 4-A.Vinatieri 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. IND 13 – CIN 10
  • Q3 09:16 TD CIN (9:16) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 80-J.Malone for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – CIN 16
  • Q3 02:19 TD IND (2:19) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 25-M.Mack for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 19 – CIN 17
  • Q4 11:24 FG IND (11:24) 4-A.Vinatieri 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. IND 23 – CIN 17
  • Q4 07:05 TD CIN (7:05) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle intended for 84-J.Doyle INTERCEPTED by 96-C.Dunlap at IND 16. 96-C.Dunlap for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. {Dunlap tipped the ball up at the 20, caught at the 16} IND 23 – CIN 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 8 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 30%

    (9:48) 2-R.Sanchez punt is BLOCKED by 75-J.Willis, Center-46-L.Rhodes, ball out of bounds at IND 49.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (5:45) 4-R.Bullock 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 17 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (4:27) 2-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to CIN 35, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at IND 36 for 29 yards (2-R.Sanchez).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 93%

    (1:42) 4-R.Bullock 34 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-H.Anderson), Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 11 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (14:51) 2-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to CIN 24, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-A.Erickson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by IND-52-B.Mingo at CIN 27.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 6 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (12:05) 4-A.Vinatieri 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:50) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to IND 32, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-Q.Bray ran ob at CIN 48 for 20 yards (10-K.Huber).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:56) 2-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to CIN 28, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-A.Erickson MUFFS catch, and recovers at CIN 28. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 28 for no gain (28-C.Milton).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 19%

    (1:23) 10-K.Huber punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 8 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (11:24) 4-A.Vinatieri 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:28) 2-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to CIN 29, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-42-K.Moore II.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 14 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:56) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to IND 24, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-80-J.Malone.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 4 at the 48 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 28%

    (1:22) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 13-T.Hilton [94-C.Smith].