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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 11

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(11:24) 4-A.Vinatieri 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.99 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model