Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 72

Indianapolis Colts 23 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

(5:28) 2-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to CIN 29, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-42-K.Moore II.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 72, worth -3.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model