Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 17 at the 86

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

(4:27) 2-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to CIN 35, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at IND 36 for 29 yards (2-R.Sanchez).

The Three Options

GO -3.71 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.72 EP
75% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 86, worth -5.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model