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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 16

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 4-R.Bullock 34 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-H.Anderson), Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.94 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.37 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 16, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +2.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT +0.61 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model