Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 14 at the 65

New England Patriots 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:19) 6-R.Allen punts 54 yards to LAC 11, Center-49-J.Cardona. 12-T.Benjamin MUFFS catch, and recovers at LAC 8. 12-T.Benjamin tackled in End Zone for -8 yards, SAFETY (36-B.King). Penalty on LAC-51-K.Emanuel, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.92 EP
69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model