LAC @ NE — 4th & Data

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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn

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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick

Sunday 2017-10-29 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

LAC

36.7%

63.3%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

NE offense: +0.128 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
Tom Brady (NE): +0.268 EPA/dropback in prior starts
NE defense: +0.131 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
LAC offense: +0.013 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 24

–

NE 27

Projected margin: NE by 3 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

LAC

Joe Barksdale T Doubtful Foot

Corey Liuget DT Questionable Back

Melvin Gordon RB Questionable Foot

NE

Malcom Brown DT Out Ankle

Dont'a Hightower LB Out Shoulder

Eric Rowe CB Out Groin

Danny Amendola WR Questionable Knee

Marcus Cannon T Questionable Ankle

Stephon Gilmore CB Questionable Concussion

Lawrence Guy DE Questionable Chest

Cassius Marsh DE Questionable Shoulder

Elandon Roberts LB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 13

–

NE 21

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 06:30 TD LAC (6:30) (Shotgun) 28-M.Gordon right end for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – NE 0
Q2 15:00 TD NE (15:00) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 7 – NE 6
Q2 09:19 SAF LAC (9:19) 6-R.Allen punts 54 yards to LAC 11, Center-49-J.Cardona. 12-T.Benjamin MUFFS catch, and recovers at LAC 8. 12-T.Benjamin tackled in End Zone for -8 yards, SAFETY (36-B.King). Penalty on LAC-51-K.Emanuel, Offensive Holding, declined. LAC 7 – NE 9
Q2 04:10 FG NE (4:10) 3-S.Gostkowski 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. LAC 7 – NE 12
Q2 00:24 FG NE (:24) 3-S.Gostkowski 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. LAC 7 – NE 15
Q3 05:30 FG NE (5:30) 3-S.Gostkowski 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. LAC 7 – NE 18
Q4 08:36 TD LAC (8:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 12-T.Benjamin for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 13 – NE 18
Q4 01:12 FG NE (1:12) 3-S.Gostkowski 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. LAC 13 – NE 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 LAC 4th & 1 at the 33

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.68 EP

p(convert) 69% p(FG) 68%

(8:57) 9-N.Novak 51 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-L.Guy), Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.
Q1 NE 4th & 2 at the 51

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP

p(convert) 61% p(FG) 23%

(7:16) 6-R.Allen punts 39 yards to LAC 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-31-J.Jones.
Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 76

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP

p(convert) 74%

(12:51) 8-D.Kaser punts 56 yards to NE 20, Center-47-M.Windt. 80-D.Amendola ran ob at NE 36 for 16 yards. PENALTY on NE-31-J.Jones, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 22.
Q2 NE 4th & 14 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(9:19) 6-R.Allen punts 54 yards to LAC 11, Center-49-J.Cardona. 12-T.Benjamin MUFFS catch, and recovers at LAC 8. 12-T.Benjamin tackled in End Zone for -8 yards, SAFETY (36-B.King). Penalty on LAC-51-K.Emanuel, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 36

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 70% p(FG) 60%

(7:13) 35-M.Gillislee right guard to LAC 28 for 8 yards (33-T.Boston).
Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 6

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP

p(convert) 55% p(FG) 98%

(4:10) 3-S.Gostkowski 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 56

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP

p(convert) 61%

(2:07) 8-D.Kaser punts 47 yards to NE 9, Center-47-M.Windt. 80-D.Amendola ran ob at NE 9 for no gain.
Q2 NE 4th & 8 at the 18

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 91%

(:24) 3-S.Gostkowski 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
Q3 NE 4th & 10 at the 25

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 83%

(14:32) 3-S.Gostkowski 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
Q3 NE 4th & 13 at the 25

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 83%

(5:30) 3-S.Gostkowski 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
Q3 LAC 4th & 13 at the 51

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 23%

(2:33) 8-D.Kaser punts 31 yards to NE 20, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.
Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 25

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 83%

(9:45) 3-S.Gostkowski 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 93-Guy eligible
Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 52

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 21%

(7:10) 6-R.Allen punts 34 yards to LAC 18, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin. Penalty on LAC-20-D.King, Offensive Holding, declined. PENALTY on LAC-25-R.Jenkins, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at LAC 18.
Q4 LAC 4th & 8 at the 74 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(4:52) 8-D.Kaser punts 52 yards to NE 22, Center-47-M.Windt. 80-D.Amendola to NE 34 for 12 yards (48-N.Dzubnar).
Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 8 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43% p(FG) 97%

(1:12) 3-S.Gostkowski 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
Q4 LAC 4th & 2 at the 36 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.12 EP

p(convert) 58% p(FG) 60%

(:14) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 30-A.Ekeler to NE 23 for 13 yards (53-K.Van Noy).