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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
New England Patriots
4th & 1 at the 36
New England Patriots 9 – Los Angeles Chargers 7
What Actually Happened
(7:13) 35-M.Gillislee right guard to LAC 28 for 8 yards (33-T.Boston).
The Three Options
GO
+2.18 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.83 EP
- 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.59 EP
KICK
+0.26 EP
- 60% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
- 40% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT
-0.13 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
