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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 18

New England Patriots 12 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(:24) 3-S.Gostkowski 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.24 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +2.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.42 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model