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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 13 at the 51

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – New England Patriots 18

What Actually Happened

(2:33) 8-D.Kaser punts 31 yards to NE 20, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.37 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 51, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.77 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model