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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 51

New England Patriots 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 6-R.Allen punts 39 yards to LAC 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-31-J.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.03 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -1.33 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP