4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 36

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(:14) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 30-A.Ekeler to NE 23 for 13 yards (53-K.Van Noy).

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
What Happened
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +1.13 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 36, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.02 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 46, worth -0.17 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.12 EP