Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 71

Miami Dolphins 0 – Baltimore Ravens 10

(11:59) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 31 yards to BAL 40, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model