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MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Adam Gase
@
BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Thursday 2017-10-26 · 20:25 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 38.0

Win Probability

MIA
39.9%
BAL
60.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.175 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • BAL offense: -0.190 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to MIA: Joe Flacco (BAL) -0.077 vs Matt Moore (MIA) +0.200 EPA/dropback (MIA starting Matt Moore in place of Jay Cutler)
  • BAL defense: -0.109 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 19
–
BAL 24
Projected margin: BAL by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

MIA

Jay Cutler QB Out Ribs
Anthony Steen G Out Foot
Laremy Tunsil T Questionable Knee
Andre Branch DE Questionable Groin
DeVante Parker WR Questionable Ankle
Jordan Phillips DT Questionable Ankle

BAL

Terrance West RB Out Calf
Maxx Williams TE Out Ankle
Michael Campanaro WR Doubtful Shoulder
Chris Matthews WR Doubtful Thigh
Tim Williams LB Doubtful Thigh
Benjamin Watson TE Questionable Knee
Tony Jefferson S Questionable Ankle
Anthony Levine S Questionable Back
Patrick Onwuasor LB Questionable Knee
Breshad Perriman WR Questionable Concussion
Terrell Suggs LB Questionable Knee
Eric Weddle S Questionable Ankle
Jeremy Maclin WR Questionable Shoulder
Matt Skura C Questionable Knee
Jimmy Smith CB Questionable Achilles
Mike Wallace WR Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 0
–
BAL 40

Prediction missed by 35 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:25 TD BAL (8:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right to 18-J.Maclin for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-58-R.Maualuga, Defensive 12 On-field, declined. MIA 0 – BAL 6
  • Q2 13:21 FG BAL (13:21) 9-J.Tucker 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. MIA 0 – BAL 10
  • Q2 08:07 FG BAL (8:07) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. MIA 0 – BAL 13
  • Q2 02:00 TD BAL (2:00) 61-L.Bowanko reported in as eligible. 15-R.Mallett pass short right to 82-B.Watson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – BAL 19
  • Q4 14:29 TD BAL (14:29) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass short right intended for 14-J.Landry INTERCEPTED by 57-C.Mosley at BAL 37. 57-C.Mosley for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – BAL 26
  • Q4 06:45 TD BAL (6:45) (Shotgun) 15-R.Mallett FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 4, recovered by BAL-10-C.Moore at MIA 00. TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – BAL 32
  • Q4 04:38 TD BAL (4:38) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass short left intended for 10-K.Stills INTERCEPTED by 22-J.Smith at 50. 22-J.Smith for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – BAL 39

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:26) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 34 yards to BAL 21, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 21-L.Webb.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:16) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 55 yards to MIA 8, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-J.Grant to MIA 9 for 1 yard (88-V.Mayle).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 13 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (9:18) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 36 yards to MIA 42, Center-92-J.Denney. 14-G.Whalen to MIA 40 for 2 yards (31-M.Thomas).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (7:33) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 49 yards to BAL 28, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 14-G.Whalen.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (5:33) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to MIA 16, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 17 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (1:15) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 38 yards to BAL 28, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 21-L.Webb.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 9 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 57%

    (13:21) 9-J.Tucker 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:59) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 31 yards to BAL 40, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 74%

    (8:07) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 11 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 69%

    (5:05) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (1:12) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 41 yards to BAL 29, Center-92-J.Denney. 21-L.Webb to BAL 29 for no gain.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 8 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:34) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 36 yards to MIA 33, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 9 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 20%

    (12:23) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to MIA 9, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-58-S.Johnson.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 5 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (10:49) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 49 yards to BAL 37, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 21-L.Webb.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 2 at the 28
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 78%

    (7:43) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-V.Taylor), Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 15 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (6:27) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 50 yards to BAL 19, Center-92-J.Denney. 21-L.Webb to BAL 26 for 7 yards (59-C.Allen). PENALTY on BAL-54-T.Bowser, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 26.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (3:08) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to MIA 13, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-J.Landry to MIA 17 for 4 yards (37-J.Allen).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 6 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (11:59) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore sacked at MIA 38 for -5 yards (54-T.Bowser).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 9 at the 39 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 51%

    (1:56) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass incomplete short right to 32-K.Drake.