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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 55

Miami Dolphins 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(12:26) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 34 yards to BAL 21, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 21-L.Webb.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.56 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 55, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 16, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model