Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 69

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Miami Dolphins 0

(:34) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 36 yards to MIA 33, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +0.90 EP
65% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 69, worth -2.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model