Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 15 at the 69

Miami Dolphins 0 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(6:27) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 50 yards to BAL 19, Center-92-J.Denney. 21-L.Webb to BAL 26 for 7 yards (59-C.Allen). PENALTY on BAL-54-T.Bowser, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 26.

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.51 EP
75% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 69, worth -3.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model