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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 57

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(3:08) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to MIA 13, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-J.Landry to MIA 17 for 4 yards (37-J.Allen).

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.17 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 57, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 17, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP