Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 57

Miami Dolphins 0 – Baltimore Ravens 26

(11:59) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore sacked at MIA 38 for -5 yards (54-T.Bowser).

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP

What Happened

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.65 EP
63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 57, worth -2.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model