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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 94

Miami Dolphins 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(9:18) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 36 yards to MIA 42, Center-92-J.Denney. 14-G.Whalen to MIA 40 for 2 yards (31-M.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -3.98 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.31 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 94, worth -5.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -3.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 52, worth -3.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model