Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 77

Miami Dolphins 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

(7:33) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 49 yards to BAL 28, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 14-G.Whalen.

The Three Options

GO -2.97 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 77, worth -4.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model