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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 87

Cleveland Browns 6 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(6:07) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to MIN 40, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 13-S.Coley.

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.71 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 87, worth -4.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 45, worth -2.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model