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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
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CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Hue Jackson
Sunday 2017-10-29 · 21:30 Twickenham Stadium, London GB ☀️ Clear Spread -11.0 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

MIN
69.7%
CLE
30.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • DeShone Kizer (CLE): -0.264 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CLE offense: -0.160 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • MIN crossing 6 time zone(s)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 22
–
CLE 16
Projected margin: MIN by 6 Projected total: 38

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

MIN

Sam Bradford QB Out Knee
Jeremiah Sirles G Out Knee
Stephen Weatherly DE Out Knee
Mackensie Alexander CB Questionable Hip
Stefon Diggs WR Questionable Groin
Riley Reiff T Questionable Knee
Nick Easton G Questionable Calf
Michael Floyd WR Questionable Hamstring

CLE

Myles Garrett DE Out Concussion
Jason McCourty CB Doubtful Ankle
Larry Ogunjobi DT Doubtful Groin
Trevon Coley DT Questionable Neck
Jabrill Peppers S Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 33
–
CLE 16

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:27 TD CLE (11:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 34-I.Crowell right guard for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – CLE 6
  • Q1 05:31 FG MIN (5:31) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley. MIN 3 – CLE 6
  • Q2 02:55 TD MIN (2:55) 7-C.Keenum pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 9 – CLE 6
  • Q2 00:42 TD CLE (:42) 7-D.Kizer up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 9 – CLE 12
  • Q2 00:03 FG MIN (:03) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley. MIN 12 – CLE 13
  • Q3 13:36 FG MIN (13:36) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley. MIN 15 – CLE 13
  • Q3 05:36 FG CLE (5:36) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. MIN 15 – CLE 16
  • Q3 01:19 TD MIN (1:19) 21-J.McKinnon left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 21 – CLE 16
  • Q4 10:11 TD MIN (10:11) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass short left to 82-K.Rudolph for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 29 – CLE 16
  • Q4 01:14 FG MIN (1:14) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley. MIN 33 – CLE 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (9:03) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 34 yards to CLE 20, Center-47-K.McDermott. 11-B.Treggs MUFFS catch, touched at CLE 20, RECOVERED by MIN-59-E.Lamur at CLE 20. PENALTY on MIN-50-E.Wilson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 20.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 4 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 92%

    (5:31) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (2:53) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to MIN 16, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 13-S.Coley.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 36%

    (12:55) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 34 yards to MIN 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 4 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 50%

    (7:37) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 30 yards to CLE 9, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-81-B.Bell.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (6:07) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to MIN 40, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 13-S.Coley.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 5 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 82%

    (13:36) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 9 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 92%

    (12:08) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (10:41) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 40 yards to CLE 29, Center-47-K.McDermott. 11-B.Treggs pushed ob at CLE 40 for 11 yards (40-K.Brothers).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (5:36) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (15:00) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to MIN 16, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:50) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to MIN 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 28 for 5 yards (40-D.Vitale).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 5 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (7:06) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 35 yards to CLE 32, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 11-B.Treggs.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:43) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 54 yards to MIN 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 24 for 10 yards (47-C.Hughlett).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (4:54) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 44 yards to CLE 16, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 11-B.Treggs.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 58 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:56) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer sacked at CLE 32 for -10 yards (97-E.Griffen).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 11 at the 33 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 66%

    (1:14) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.