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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 25

Minnesota Vikings 12 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(13:36) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.55 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 35, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model