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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 5

Cleveland Browns 13 – Minnesota Vikings 15

What Actually Happened

(5:36) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.02 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 5, worth +0.22 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model