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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 69

Cleveland Browns 16 – Minnesota Vikings 23

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to MIN 16, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 69, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 27, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model