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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 73

Cleveland Browns 16 – Minnesota Vikings 30

What Actually Happened

(8:50) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to MIN 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 28 for 5 yards (40-D.Vitale).

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.60 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 73, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 31, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model