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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 67

Minnesota Vikings 30 – Cleveland Browns 16

What Actually Happened

(7:06) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 35 yards to CLE 32, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 11-B.Treggs.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.80 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 67, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 25, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model