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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 68

Cleveland Browns 16 – Minnesota Vikings 30

What Actually Happened

(6:43) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 54 yards to MIN 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 24 for 10 yards (47-C.Hughlett).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.83 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 68, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 26, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model