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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 54

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(9:03) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 34 yards to CLE 20, Center-47-K.McDermott. 11-B.Treggs MUFFS catch, touched at CLE 20, RECOVERED by MIN-59-E.Lamur at CLE 20. PENALTY on MIN-50-E.Wilson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.48 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 54, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP