4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 58

Cleveland Browns 16 – Minnesota Vikings 30

What Actually Happened

(2:56) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer sacked at CLE 32 for -10 yards (97-E.Griffen).

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.75 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 58, worth -2.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.60 EP