4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 33

Minnesota Vikings 30 – Cleveland Browns 16

What Actually Happened

(1:14) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.08 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 33, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 43, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model