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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 57

Cleveland Browns 6 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(2:53) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to MIN 16, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 13-S.Coley.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.90 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 57, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model