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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 82

Buffalo Bills 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(:20) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 46 yards to LV 36, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 30-J.Richard. PENALTY on LV-91-S.Calhoun, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 36.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.63 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 82, worth -4.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 40, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP