4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
OAK Away

Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
@
BUF Home

Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2017-10-29 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

OAK
36.8%
BUF
63.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.105 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • BUF offense: -0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.051 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • LV on 3 more days rest than BUF
  • Derek Carr (LV): +0.111 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

OAK 21
–
BUF 25
Projected margin: BUF by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

OAK

David Amerson CB Out Foot
Gareon Conley CB Out Shin
Karl Joseph S Doubtful Groin
Cory James LB Questionable Knee
Marquette King P Questionable right Groin
Marquel Lee LB Questionable Ankle
Nicholas Morrow LB Questionable Ankle
Marshall Newhouse T Questionable Foot

BUF

Charles Clay TE Out Knee
E.J. Gaines CB Out Hamstring
Ramon Humber LB Out Thumb
Jordan Poyer S Questionable Knee
Richie Incognito G Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 14
–
BUF 34

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:33 TD LV (9:33) 49-J.Olawale up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 6 – BUF 0
  • Q2 08:54 TD BUF (8:54) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 18-A.Holmes for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in rear corner of end zone. OAK 7 – BUF 6
  • Q2 00:41 TD BUF (:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 33-D.Washington to LV 39 for 5 yards (24-L.Johnson). FUMBLES (24-L.Johnson), RECOVERED by BUF-58-M.Milano at LV 40. 58-M.Milano for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 7 – BUF 13
  • Q3 11:48 FG BUF (11:48) 4-S.Hauschka 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. OAK 7 – BUF 17
  • Q3 08:23 FG BUF (8:23) 4-S.Hauschka 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. OAK 7 – BUF 20
  • Q4 15:00 TD BUF (15:00) 5-T.Taylor up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 7 – BUF 26
  • Q4 10:54 TD LV (10:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 33-D.Washington for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at BUF 1, slanting to middle. OAK 13 – BUF 27
  • Q4 03:21 TD BUF (3:21) 25-L.McCoy left guard for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on LV-51-B.Irvin, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. OAK 14 – BUF 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 37%

    (10:59) 49-J.Olawale up the middle to BUF 44 for 1 yard (57-L.Alexander). FUMBLES (57-L.Alexander), and recovers at BUF 44. 49-J.Olawale to BUF 43 for 1 yard (57-L.Alexander). Measurement = first down. Buffalo challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q1 LV 4th & 10 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 45%

    (1:42) 7-M.King punts 33 yards to BUF 9, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (:20) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 46 yards to LV 36, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 30-J.Richard. PENALTY on LV-91-S.Calhoun, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 36.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (13:38) 7-M.King punts 41 yards to BUF 25, Center-59-J.Condo. 15-B.Tate to BUF 36 for 11 yards (16-J.Holton; 47-J.Cowser).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (5:05) 7-M.King punts 28 yards to BUF 36, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-39-K.McGill.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 8 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 24%

    (2:10) 6-C.Schmidt punts 50 yards to LV 1, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:20) 6-C.Schmidt punts 55 yards to LV 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 30-J.Richard to LV 17 for 4 yards (58-M.Milano). FUMBLES (58-M.Milano), RECOVERED by BUF-35-M.Tolbert at LV 14. Penalty on LV-39-K.McGill, Offensive Holding, declined. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 13 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 92%

    (11:48) 4-S.Hauschka 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 82%

    (8:23) 4-S.Hauschka 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 8 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:27) 7-M.King punts 51 yards to BUF 14, Center-59-J.Condo. 15-B.Tate to BUF 20 for 6 yards (47-J.Cowser).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (15:00) 5-T.Taylor up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 8 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 32%

    (5:04) 6-C.Schmidt punts 28 yards to LV 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-26-T.Jones.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 52 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 22%

    (3:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short left to 89-A.Cooper. Thrown wide of receiver, near sideline at BUF 46.