4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 66

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 7-M.King punts 41 yards to BUF 25, Center-59-J.Condo. 15-B.Tate to BUF 36 for 11 yards (16-J.Holton; 47-J.Cowser).

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.79 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 66, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 24, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP