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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 64

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 7-M.King punts 28 yards to BUF 36, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-39-K.McGill.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.72 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 64, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 22, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP