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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 51

Buffalo Bills 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(2:10) 6-C.Schmidt punts 50 yards to LV 1, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.20 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 51, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -1.41 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model