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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 13 at the 17

Buffalo Bills 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(11:48) 4-S.Hauschka 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.98 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 17, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 27, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model