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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 26

Buffalo Bills 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(8:23) 4-S.Hauschka 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +5.01 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 36, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model