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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 52

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Buffalo Bills 27

What Actually Happened

(3:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short left to 89-A.Cooper. Thrown wide of receiver, near sideline at BUF 46.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.91 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 52, worth -1.88 EP
KICK -1.00 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 15, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model