Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 42

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 7-M.King punts 33 yards to BUF 9, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.72 EP
71% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 42, worth -2.23 EP

KICK -0.70 EP

45% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
55% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model