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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 19 at the 19

Detroit Lions 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:15) 5-M.Prater 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
  • 18% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.86 EP
  • 82% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model