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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
DET Home

Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
Sunday 2017-10-29 · 20:30 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

PIT
51.3%
DET
48.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: -0.116 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • DET on 7 more days rest than PIT
  • Matthew Stafford (DET): -0.067 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PIT defense: -0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

PIT 22
–
DET 21
Projected margin: PIT by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

PIT

Marcus Gilbert T Out Hamstring
Vance McDonald TE Out Knee
Stephon Tuitt DE Out Back

DET

Kenny Golladay WR Out Hamstring
Greg Robinson T Out Ankle
Emmett Cleary T Out Ankle
Paul Worrilow LB Questionable Knee
Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Knee
Golden Tate WR Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 20
–
DET 15

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:17 FG PIT (12:17) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 3 – DET 0
  • Q1 07:55 FG DET (7:55) 5-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. PIT 3 – DET 3
  • Q2 09:15 FG DET (9:15) 5-M.Prater 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. PIT 3 – DET 6
  • Q2 04:14 TD PIT (4:14) (Shotgun) 26-L.Bell up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 9 – DET 6
  • Q2 02:19 FG DET (2:19) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. PIT 10 – DET 9
  • Q2 00:17 FG DET (:17) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. PIT 10 – DET 12
  • Q3 09:25 FG PIT (9:25) 9-C.Boswell 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 13 – DET 12
  • Q3 03:15 TD PIT (3:15) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 19 – DET 12
  • Q4 12:59 FG DET (12:59) 5-M.Prater 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. PIT 20 – DET 15

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 2 at the 16
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 94%

    (12:17) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 14 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 78%

    (7:55) 5-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 17 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (4:00) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to PIT 45, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 29%

    (2:25) 4-J.Berry punts 41 yards to DET 10, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (:09) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to PIT 16, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-39-J.Agnew.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 7 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (12:55) 4-J.Berry punts 50 yards to DET 31, Center-57-K.Canaday. 39-J.Agnew to DET 42 for 11 yards (44-T.Matakevich; 31-M.Hilton).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 19 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 18% p(FG) 92%

    (9:15) 5-M.Prater 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 5 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 72%

    (2:19) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 94%

    (:17) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:35) 6-S.Martin punts 19 yards to DET 48, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 19 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 91%

    (9:25) 9-C.Boswell 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 99%

    (4:31) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at PIT 2 for -1 yards (94-T.Alualu).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.88 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 99%

    (12:59) 5-M.Prater 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:01) 4-J.Berry punts 53 yards to DET 19, Center-57-K.Canaday. 39-J.Agnew to DET 29 for 10 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 12 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (5:03) 4-J.Berry punts 44 yards to DET 15, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 7 at the 8 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 85-E.Ebron (50-R.Shazier) [79-J.Hargrave].