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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 16

Detroit Lions 9 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(:17) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.04 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.90 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.12 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model