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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Detroit Lions
4th & 1 at the 1
Detroit Lions 12 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13
What Actually Happened
(4:31) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at PIT 2 for -1 yards (94-T.Alualu).
The Three Options
GO
+3.86 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
60% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.09 EP
- 40% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.47 EP
KICK
+2.12 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT
+0.04 EP
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
