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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 1

Detroit Lions 12 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 5-M.Prater 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +3.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.01 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.73 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.88 EP