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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 72

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Detroit Lions 15

What Actually Happened

(12:01) 4-J.Berry punts 53 yards to DET 19, Center-57-K.Canaday. 39-J.Agnew to DET 29 for 10 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 72, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 30, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model