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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 8

Detroit Lions 15 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 85-E.Ebron (50-R.Shazier) [79-J.Hargrave].

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.07 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EP