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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 17 at the 90

Detroit Lions 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:00) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to PIT 45, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -3.50 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.42 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 47, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model